Sarawak’s GPS needs a boost to stay kingmaker ahead of GE15, analysts say

Despite scoring a massive victory in the Sarawak state election last year, analysts say the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition needs to shore up its support in order to retain its position as a kingmaker in federal politics ahead of the 15th general election (GE15).

Otherwise, they say, the pact led by premier Abang Johari Openg risks losing its political influence in Putrajaya.

James Chin said this could well be the case if Umno, the lynchpin party of Barisan Nasional (BN) which recently notched another triumph at the state level in Johor, wins a substantial number of parliamentary seats in GE15.

“GE15 is very dangerous for GPS,” Chin, of Australia’s University of Tasmania, told MalaysiaNow.

“If Umno and BN win a large majority in GE15 or can grow their support, GPS’ influence in Putrajaya will likely drop by a significant amount.”

At the Sarawak election last December, GPS won 76 out of 82 seats, securing a simple majority and setting a new record for the most seats won by a coalition, set by Abang Johari’s predecessor Adenan Satem at the 2016 state polls.

Even before that, it had positioned itself as a crucial voice in determining the federal government, backing Muhyiddin Yassin following a prolonged period of instability in the wake of the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration in 2020.

Within the current government led by Umno’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob, there are 18 MPs from GPS contributing to his four-seat majority in Parliament.

Chin said GPS would have to secure at least 25 parliamentary seats at GE15 in order to retain its kingmaker role.

“The key challenge for GPS now is the general election,” he added.

“Abang Johari has to make sure that the number of MPs from GPS increases. This is his key performance factor now.”

However, Chin cautioned that GPS would have a fine line to tread.

“The trick is, GPS must win big in Sarawak, but the federal government has to win small numbers.

“If he gets less than that, his influence in Putrajaya will drop significantly.”

GPS comprises Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP).

Veteran Sarawak observer Jayum Jawan agreed with Chin. However, he pointed to internal factions in Umno, saying the political instability makes it difficult to determine with whom GPS should align itself.

“The challenge for GE15 is that reading who will win is much harder this time around. It could be an Umno-led coalition, based on the party’s performance in Melaka,” he added.

At the Melaka election last November, BN returned to form the state government, winning 21 of the 28 seats it contested.

Jayum also referred to the recent election in Johor, saying the outcome of the polls should also be taken into account.

“It is significant to the perception of whether Umno is coming back,” he said.

Alternatively, he added, GE15 could also be won by a Bersatu-led coalition.

“What if PKR-led allies pull off a surprise? Too many factors and possibilities,” he said.

Regardless, Jayum said, GPS would be paying close attention to current developments.

“GPS will wait and see, to avoid any of the embarrassing U-turns for which many Malaysian political parties and politicians are well known,” he said.

“Abang Johari, PBB and GPS are holding their cards close to their chests.”

At the end of the day, he said, history showed that no government in Sarawak could stand alone without “federal leaning”.

“The Sarawak government has always sided with the winner at the federal level.”