Kedah tough without Bersatu, analyst douses PAS confidence despite advantage in Malay belt

PAS may find it difficult to secure Kedah alone without its Perikatan Nasional (PN) partners, especially Bersatu which managed to win over a chunk of votes from Pakatan Harapan (PH) in recent elections, an analyst says following remarks by the Islamist party's leader that it intends to steer clear of coalition governments.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said last week that he wanted the party to rule alone in Kedah without riding on an administration formed through a coalition.

But Hisommudin Bakar said Hadi might have based his comments on the voting pattern seen at the recent state elections in Melaka and Johor.

Hisommudin, of electoral think tank Ilham Centre, said PAS had received a surge of support in some of the seats it contested on a PN ticket.

He said Hadi might therefore expect the party to add to its strength in PAS strongholds such as Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan. 

But speaking to MalaysiaNow, Hisommudin attributed the increase in support for PAS to its cooperation with Bersatu under the PN banner. 

"If PAS contests alone, it will not be as easy," he added. "Far from it." 

Speaking on Sunday, Hadi insisted that his party was strong enough to face GE15, saying it now needed to attract the support of the voters in Kedah. 

Hisommudin however said PAS must remember that a general election is not the same thing as a state-level election. 

He said PAS would need to take into consideration several factors outside of its control. 

For one, he said, the recent floods in Baling and Gunung Jerai and issues with the water supply in the state had caused public dissatisfaction with the Kedah government. 

He also spoke of a renewed confidence in Barisan Nasional (BN). 

"BN may not appear strong on paper, but it might benefit from the current wave of dissatisfaction among the people," he said. 

"BN will be seen as the alternative, not PH." 

Hisommudin said PAS would also need to account for outstation voters residing in other states.  

"What will their voting pattern be this time around?"

He said PAS could not take these voters lightly as they might not follow the general trend but might even bring about changes. 

"Hadi's reasoning is, if the pattern of support remains similar to that seen in Melaka and Johor, PAS will increase in strength," he said. 

"So it can still survive in states like Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan." 

Analyst Mazlan Ali meanwhile said Hadi's goal was possible given that PAS had long commanded the support of the Malays in Kedah.  

Mazlan, of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said PAS would easily win in the state if contests on the whole are among more than three candidates. 

"This might give PAS the edge in certain seats, especially in rural areas," he said. 

"PAS will benefit from this." 

The PAS administration in Kedah under Muhamamd Sanusi Md Nor holds 15 of the 36 seats in the state legislative assembly. 

It leads the PN government in the state together with Bersatu which holds six seats and Umno which has two. 

Opposition bloc PH meanwhile holds 13 state seats. PKR holds five, Amanah holds four, DAP has two and Pejuang, two.