Admitting 'mosquito parties' will spark trouble over seats, analyst says

An analyst predicts a tussle over seats at the 15th general election (GE15) if Barisan Nasional (BN) accepts more parties into its fold, even as the Umno-led coalition weighs the membership applications of six groups ahead of the widely anticipated polls.

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, James Chin of Australia’s University of Tasmania said long-time BN members MCA and MIC were unlikely to give up any of their seats in the event that the coalition expands to include new partners. 

"If they allow more parties to come in, they will obviously get less," he said. 

"MIC and MCA will be the first to try and stop them." 

He added that both parties appeared confident of doing well in the election to come, noting BN's strong performance at the recent state elections in Melaka and Johor. 

"Less is better," he said. "Just stick to the original BN, which is Umno, MCA and MIC. 

"If the election is held in October, the same big results will happen." 

BN deputy chairman Mohamad Hasan said on Aug 18 that the coalition was still considering the membership applications of Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), led by former Bersatu Supreme Council member Zuraida Kamaruddin, and several other groups. 

But with its existing parties looking to stake their claim on seats even before an election date is set, BN could find itself hard put in terms of allocations.  

MIC, for one, appears to be gunning for more than its usual share, with its president SA Vigneswaran saying on Aug 18 that the party had asked the top BN leadership to let it contest 12 parliamentary seats in GE15. 

"We want a fighting chance," he had said. "Why do we want to waste our time and money if we can't contest and can't win? What is the use?

"We can't just be contesting our parliamentary areas (traditional MIC seats). What about the Umno parliamentary seats? In managing the BN family, I'm sure they will consider all this." 

He also gave the example of Cameron Highlands, a seat traditionally given to MIC which it had handed over to Umno in the 2019 by-election. 

Chin said if he were part of the BN leadership, he would think twice about opening the door to new parties such as PBM.

"They have no record at all," he added. "In fact, their most recent record is that they keep losing.

"Why would you want to admit mosquito parties that have no chance in BN?"

Former Penang BN executive secretary Azizi Safar meanwhile said the coalition's Supreme Council would likely take more time to deliberate the issue.

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, he said there was no rush to decide on the applications. 

He, too, said it was possible that the entry of new parties would disrupt seat negotiations in BN although this was not necessarily the case. 

"Not all of BN's component parties are given seats to contest in general elections," he said. 

"Most likely, only one or two 'friends of BN' will get seats to contest in GE15." 

Azizi said these would probably comprise the seats contested by Gerakan during its time with BN. 

He also spoke of the possibility of seat swaps among the three main parties, saying Gerakan's "old" seats – 11 in total – could be divided among them. 

"The main question is whether Umno is willing to give MIC and MCA seats that can be won in GE15," he said. 

"Many Umno divisions are asking to contest the seats previously allocated to MIC and MCA, as these were lost over the last few general elections."

Giving the example of Batu Kawan as a seat that could be allocated to other parties, he added: "This is another issue that the Supreme Council must decide."