Early GE won't necessarily benefit Umno, say analysts

While calls have arisen from within Umno for the prime minister to dissolve Parliament and pave the way for an early election, analysts warn that such a move might in fact backfire on the party which appears to be splitting apart.

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, they said Umno should instead focus on resolving its leadership issues, to prevent conflicts from arising in its quest to obtain a two-thirds majority at the 15th general election (GE15). 

Pressure for an election to be called ahead of the expiry of the current Parliament term could be seen as recently as Aug 27, when Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi reiterated at a special party briefing that GE15 should be held as soon as possible. 

His remarks were in line with the stand of the Umno Supreme Council, the party's highest decision-making body. 

At the briefing, Umno members also expressed their dissatisfaction with the jailing of former prime minister Najib Razak, who began serving a 12-year prison sentence several days earlier, after the Federal Court upheld his conviction for the misappropriation of millions in SRC International funds. 

Ahmad Atory Hussain of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Umno was not yet strong enough to face GE15 as it still had to reckon with the court cluster comprising former government leaders, including Zahid, who are facing criminal charges. 

He said the situation would continue to tarnish the party's name and could see Malay voters currently on the fence turning to alternative parties like PAS, Bersatu, Pejuang and Gerakan Tanah Air. 

"Umno itself is breaking apart and the party's direction is unclear," he said. 

"Umno needs to be strong enough to purge its leadership of the court cluster. Only then will it benefit if GE15 is held." 

If Umno succeeds in freeing itself from the grip of the court cluster, he said, it could re-establish ties with PAS and Bersatu under Muafakat Nasional, to win the overall support of Malay voters. 

Mujibu Abd Muis of Universiti Teknologi Mara meanwhile said that Umno would not gain if GE15 is delayed, either, as this would allow the opposition more time to rally for an attack. 

"Just recently, there was the issue of the littoral combat ship (LCS) project, and other issues that involve senior Umno leaders," Mujibu said. 

Referring to Najib's recent jailing and the court's decision for Kinabatangan MP Bung Moktar Radin and his wife to enter their defence against charges of graft, he said all of this would give the opposition more ammunition to show Umno as beset with problems of corruption. 

He said Umno still had strong support among the voters, anchored by hardcore supporters from the party's grassroots. 

Nevertheless, he said, current sentiments could still influence voters to the extent of causing a repeat of Umno's historic loss at the 2018 general election. 

"The perception of Umno as a corrupt party remains strong, especially with the ongoing court cases," he said. 

"Strong parties like Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan have a chance of winning over those on the fence." 

Both Mujibu and Atory believe that Ismail Sabri Yaakob's chances of retaining the position of prime minister are slim, even if Umno succeeds in obtaining a two-thirds majority. 

Atory said Najib's imprisonment would affect Ismail's support among Umno members, especially those in the court cluster, as he was seen as refusing to comply with the party's calls for an early election. 

Nevertheless, he said, the decision was not Ismail's alone as the present government comprises a number of parties, all of whom would need to support the dissolution of Parliament. 

"This is what Umno fails to understand," he said. "It's not that Ismail doesn't want to. He actually can't because he needs the permission of his 'stepbrothers' in the government.

"Umno needs to understand the concept of sharing power," he added. "They can only decide when to call an election if they win two third's support." 

But Mujibu said Umno would not have the courage to sack Ismail as this could open the floodgates to war within the party. 

"If they sack Ismail, they are the ones who will lose out," he said. 

"But if Umno wins big, I don't know how Ismail can remain as prime minister."