What odds of a BN-PH govt after GE15?

Talk of a joint government between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the event of an election victory with no clear majority has arisen following the refusal of the Umno-led coalition to hold discussions with its one-time ally PAS in the aftermath of the Nov 19 polls. 

At least one political analyst has played down the odds of such a scenario, pointing out the differences in struggle and ideology between the two pacts, which met head-on as foes in the last general election. 

For Ahmad Martadha Mohamed of Universiti Utara Malaysia, chances of a BN-PH partnership are next to zero. 

"PKR doesn't prioritise Malay interests while DAP is a party that the Malays will not accept," he said. 

"Amanah meanwhile won't stand for the presence of PAS." 

Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya, on the other hand, believes that a BN-PH government could be possible if both coalitions succeed in winning an even number of seats.

"If, for example, Umno manages to win 80 seats while PKR and DAP get 70, the Agong will definitely decree that they form a coalition government," he said. 

"And if this happens, Umno will need to comply as the decision will have encompassed more than just the party itself." 

Umno and PAS had in 2019 signed a pact of cooperation known as Muafakat Nasional. 

However, following weeks of uncertainty in the run-up to the general election announcement, PAS – a founding member of Perikatan Nasional (PN) – said it would continue to strengthen its cooperation with the coalition.

This was seen as a snub to Umno, which had laid down three conditions for a return to the negotiation table, stipulating that PAS cut ties with Bersatu and PN. 

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi later said that BN would proceed to contest the 15th general election (GE15) under its own steam, adding that no talks would be held with the "lebai" party in the aftermath of the polls. 

No fixed enemies

But despite the strength of Zahid's words, Awang Azman recalled the adage that, in politics, there are no fixed friends or enemies. 

"The only thing that's permanent is interests," he said. "So it's possible that after GE15, things could change." 

Martadha agreed, saying that space remained for collaboration between Umno and PAS despite Zahid's response. 

He said cooperation between Umno and Bersatu was also possible given that the two parties had the same ideology in terms of protecting the interests of the Malays. 

In the event that it needs to work with another party or coalition, he said, Umno would choose one with strong grassroots support. 

"If Umno wants to form a coalition government, its first choice would be PAS, followed by Bersatu," he said. 

On the possibility of BN working with Dr Mahathir Mohamad's Gerakan Tanah Air, Martadha said this was less likely as Pejuang, the party leading the movement, was small and seen as insignificant. 

"They don't seem to be able to contribute much," he said. 

"At the end of the day, a PN-BN combination would stand out the most."