What fate for the Umno court cluster at the polling booth?

Analysts expect Barisan Nasional (BN) to meet stiff resistance from Perikatan Nasional (PN) at the 15th general election (GE15) next month if the latter chooses to capitalise on the predicament of the so-called court cluster comprising Umno leaders who are facing criminal charges in court.

With former prime minister Najib Razak serving a 12-year jail term at Kajang Prison, and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi facing a string of corruption charges despite his recent acquittal of 40, Ahmad Atory Hussain said the court cluster would face a strong fight from PN if the coalition amped up its campaign, particularly in using social media to reveal scandals involving graft. 

"If the court cluster doesn't double its efforts, it might lose," Atory, of Universiti Sains Malaysia, said. 

"If PN fields strong candidates who can keep pace with their competitors, the court cluster will sway in the face of this challenge." 

While Zahid might win his seat if he had no opponent stronger than him, Atory added, BN might have a hard time keeping Pekan, where Najib can no longer be fielded as a candidate. 

"The army vote is also split now," he said. "The grassroots have split towards Bersatu and PAS. 

"This time, competition for that seat will be fierce." 

Talk of Najib's son, Nizar, being fielded in his place has been rife ahead of GE15 which is scheduled to be held on Nov 19. 

But for Atory, any nomination of Nizar would depend on the assessment of the Pekan Umno division. 

He said the leadership would have to take into account the strength of the party in Pahang, which was no longer what it once was. 

Najib and Zahid aside, Umno leaders such as Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor and former Tabung Haji chairman Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim have had their day in court as well, in addition to Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan and Sabah BN chairman Bung Moktar Radin and his wife, Zizie Ezette.

With their reputations smeared by their legal battles, the question is what fate will befall them come GE15. 

Azmil Tayeb, a political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia, said whether these leaders are released or convicted might not bring about any significant change at the polling booth. 

"The Umno leaders who have been charges have strong grassroots support and a long track record of service in their areas," he said. 

"Their reputation might have been damaged at the national level, but at the local level, they are still seen as representatives who have given much for the people and brought about development and progress." 

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said that voting patterns might depend on the demographics of the parliamentary seats represented by the court cluster. 

"Voters who are aware of these issues in seats that are more urban and less rural, like Pontian, will be more affected by their renomination as candidates," he said. 

"But voters in mostly rural seats like Baling and Bagan Datuk might be more tolerant of even serious charges, as long as the material benefits they receive from the incumbents continue."