Analysts split over Anwar's odds in Tambun

Analysts are split over PKR chief Anwar Ibrahim's chances in the election race for Tambun, with at least one saying that fielding the opposition leader in the Malay-majority seat is no guarantee of victory for Pakatan Harapan (PH). 

Veteran analyst Jeniri Amir said the Tambun incumbent, Bersatu's Ahmad Faizal Azumu, and Barisan Nasional's (BN) candidate Aminuddin Md Hanafiah would give Anwar a run for his money at the 15th general election (GE15). 

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, he said their individual strengths made it difficult to predict any particular winner, which would make Tambun one of the main seats to watch come polling day. 

Jeniri said Faizal's background as a Manjoi local gave the Bersatu deputy president the edge in terms of popular support on the ground. 

"As the incumbent, he has the advantage there because the voters know him better than they know Anwar," he said. 

"Faizal has an established network there and has been serving the constituents, so he will not have to work to break the ice." 

Faizal, popularly known as Peja, won the Tambun seat at GE14 in a surprise victory over BN, which had long held the constituency through its lynchpin party Umno.

At the 2018 election, Faizal won 38,661 votes, continuing to victory with a majority of 5,320 and defeating five-term MP Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah who had held the seat since 1995. 

Husni won 33,341 votes while Ibrahim Zakaria of PAS gained 14,948.

Nevertheless, Jeniri said BN had a chance of retaking the seat at the upcoming polls as Bersatu's victory in 2018 had come on the back of its PH membership. 

The party only exited the coalition some two years later, following the collapse of the PH administration. 

At GE14, the opposition had swept to power on a wave of anti-government sentiment over the 1MDB scandal and then prime minister Najib Razak. 

But today, with anger over 1MDB on the ebb and Najib serving a 12-year term in jail, Jeniri said BN would have more elbow room to rally support in Tambun once more. 

"The circumstances will also favour BN if voter turnout is low on election day," he said. 

This, coupled with the nomination of new faces in line with the strategy employed at the Melaka and Johor elections, would give BN an advantage, he added. 

But Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said PH's move to field Anwar in Tambun would not have been made in haste. 

He said PH would have studied the impact of Anwar and PKR moving into the constituency before making any decision. 

"I expect a fierce three-way fight in Tambun among BN, PH and Perikatan Nasional," he said. 

Awang said the move would also send a strong message to PH component parties such as Amanah and DAP to do the same. 

"Some who call themselves game changers, strategists and popular figures are content with contesting safe seats," he said. 

"After this, for example, Rafizi Ramli should take on areas like Batu Pahat which could have an impact on the seats of Muar and Sri Gading."