Predicting victory in seats a game of perceptions, analysts say

Analysts have played down announcements by coalitions of the number of seats they expect to win, as political groups battle it out for the minimum needed to form a new government after the Nov 19 polls. 

And while opposition pact Pakatan Harapan (PH) has already forecast victory in at least 80 seats, they say that achieving this would require a high turnout of voters on election day. 

Veteran observer Azizi Safar also noted inconsistencies between this number, given by PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli, and the even higher figure of 100 estimated by party president Anwar Ibrahim. 

"Which is correct, and which is more accurate?" Azizi, a former Penang Barisan Nasional (BN) secretary, said. 

Anwar, the PH chairman, had voiced confidence that the coalition could win 100 seats, pulling off a repeat of the previous general election in 2018. 

He said PH would need only another 12 seats to meet the minimum of 112 required for a simple majority to form the federal government. 

Rafizi's estimate, meanwhile, was based on research by his organisation, Invoke.  

Azizi said it was a given that parties contesting an election would predict their own victory.

"This is a game of perceptions by PH to gain the support of the people, with the aim of establishing the government after the polls," he added.

"It is a common method used by politicians at general elections." 

PH, together with youth-based party Muda, is contesting a total of 212 seats, with DAP fielding eight candidates in Sarawak under the party's rocket logo. 

BN, meanwhile, is contesting 178 seats while Perikatan Nasional (PN) is standing in 149. In Kelantan and Terengganu, 22 of these will be contested on a PAS ticket. 

Pejuang, led by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, is contesting 116 seats; Gabungan Parti Sarawak, 31; Warisan, 52; Parti Rakyat Malaysia, 16; Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, 13; Parti Sarawak Bersatu, 10; and Putra, nine. 

Political analyst Ahmad Marthada Mohamed agreed that seat predictions were aimed at swinging votes and convincing voters to choose the coalition in question. 

Marthada, of Universiti Utara Malaysia, also questioned Rafizi's estimate of victory in 80 seats, calling it "extreme".

Nevertheless, he said PH might continue to perform in Kuala Lumpur due to its support base of non-Malay and urban Malay voters. 

"They are still inclined to support PH, so it would be no surprise for PH to hope for a majority victory in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor," he said. 

Marthada himself estimates that PH might win 51 seats in the peninsula, in Selangor (13), Perak (11), Kuala Lumpur (10), Johor (eight), Negeri Sembilan (four), Melaka (three) and Pahang (two). 

Liew Wui Chern of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman meanwhile said PH had a chance of winning the 80 seats forecast by Rafizi, although he expressed reservations about Anwar's prediction of 100. 

But he said that victory in those 80 seats would depend heavily on voter turnout. 

"Rafizi's prediction of 80 seats can be achieved if the voting rate is higher than 75%," he said. 

"But a 50% to 60% voting rate won't help PH bag more than that." 

Liew also said that PH had a slight advantage over BN and PN, at least for the moment. 

"PN is causing a split in votes from BN, hence Rafizi's optimism on PH's ability to win more seats."