PN comeback not out of the picture, say analysts

Analysts say that Perikatan Nasional (PN) stands a fair chance of returning to federal power, even as the coalition that won the second highest number of seats at the recent general election buckles in for a stint on the opposition bench. 

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, they cited the Nov 19 polls which ended in uncertainty, with no single party or coalition winning enough support to form the government on its own. 

The stalemate broke only days later, when Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman Anwar Ibrahim managed to obtain the support of MPs from Barisan Nasional (BN), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Warisan. 

At the recent Dewan Rakyat sitting, PN's Hamzah Zainudin, speaking as opposition chief, said the coalition was ready to play the role of an effective opposition, adding however that it was prepared to take control of the government when the time came. 

James Chin of Australia's University of Tasmania said the same could apply to any political party, as all that is needed to take over the government is the support of 112 MPs. 

"PN or anybody can take over the government," he said. 

"The problem is getting enough seats or getting elected, not so much about their ability. If you look at some of the past ministers, they were actually not fit to be ministers in the first place." 

Meanwhile, Jeniri Amir, a senior fellow at the National Professors Council, said the trend of coalition governments might continue for the foreseeable future due to changes in the country's political landscape. 

He said it would be difficult for any coalition, including PN, to form the government on its own, adding that it would need the support of at least the political blocs in Sabah and Sarawak. 

"For now, it's not a given that parties that win big can form the government," he said. 

"In other words, we need to take into consideration the political situation as a whole, including the support of smaller parties that succeed in winning a place in Parliament." 

At the 15th general election (GE15), PH won 82 seats, followed by PN with 74. BN, meanwhile, saw its worst election performance ever, winning only 30 seats. 

GPS won 23, GRS won six, and the remaining seven were won by other parties and independent candidates. 

Chin and Jeniri agreed that the next step for PN if it wished to return to power would be to win the state elections expected in six states next year. 

Jeniri said PN would win more support if it proved itself as an effective opposition in the Dewan Rakyat and continued to champion issues related to the Malay community. 

"This will not be an easy task, given that both BN and PKR are now in the government, with many resources and networks at hand to help the people." 

Chin, who estimated that PN was targeting four of the six states, said it could pull off a victory if it succeeded in repeating the "green wave" of GE15. 

"The only two states where they don't stand a chance are Selangor and Penang," he said. 

"If they can repeat the green wave at the state elections, then PH will be in big trouble."