Could Najib be freed by Raya?

Former prime minister Najib Razak could be released from jail before the Hari Raya celebration, going by the most recent experience of securing royal pardons for politicians aligned with ruling parties, at least two lawyers involved in the process have said.

This comes as a debate ensues over the power of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong in the wake of strong indication by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim that he is on the Pardons Board, the same body that cut short his jail sentence less than a week after his coalition came to power in 2018.

A lawyer familiar with the "lengthy and tedious" application process told MalaysiaNow that the "political repercussions" following any failure to secure a royal pardon for Najib would ultimately become a critical factor, recalling a similar situation five years ago after Pakatan Harapan (PH) agreed to make Dr Mahathir Mohamad the prime minister.

"That agreement (to appoint Mahathir) naturally came with the promise to ensure a royal pardon for Anwar, knowing well the immense powers and influence that the office of the prime minister wields in such matters," said a PKR source who was familiar with discussions involving Bersatu and PKR leaders in the run-up to the 2018 polls.

He said the consequences of not freeing Anwar then would not be dissimilar to what might happen in the event that Najib is not granted a pardon once a formal application is directly filed.

"It would have meant the collapse of the week-old government. So despite the vague composition of the Pardons Board in May 2018, Anwar's pardon was approved with record speed," he added.

Anwar walked out of jail on May 15, 2018, just five days after Mahathir was sworn in as prime minister of the new PH government which comprised his party Bersatu at the time. 

The PKR leader was serving a five-year jail sentence for a sodomy conviction involving an aide in the party's office.

Following the inconclusive results which resulted in a hung parliament after the general election last year, Umno committed its MPs in support of Anwar, allowing him to fulfil his long-held ambition of taking the top office. 

"Any negative response to this single request by Umno would mean the fall of Anwar's government, as it would be disastrous for Umno grassroots whose sympathy remains with Najib," said a source in Umno privy to the sudden interest in seeking a pardon for Najib.

Analysts recently said that Umno was working to rebuild its support ahead of the six state elections to come this year. Of the six, five will be held in states with the party's traditional vote bank. 

Umno suffered its worst defeat ever at last year's polls which saw the bulk of its Malay base switching camp to Perikatan Nasional (PN). 

"Umno must prove to its grassroots that its cooperation with PH and Anwar is worth it. If it cannot get Najib out, it is no longer tenable for it to be part of the coalition government," the source added.

Outcome to show 'in days'

Meanwhile, a former PKR MP said the likelihood of Najib getting a pardon was "very strong", and could happen in a matter of days once Umno has had its audience with the Agong. 

"Like in 2018, the outcome will be seen in days. The publicity surrounding the audience with the Agong is part of the pressure on the Pardons Board. No surprise if he walks out in time to spend Hari Raya in Pekan," she told MalaysiaNow, referring to Najib's home town and former constituency.

She also said the silence of top PH leaders in the face of criticism from civil society and activists over the movement to free Najib was "a sign of what is to come".

"Apart from Muhyiddin and PN leaders, no one has joined the protest. And Anwar himself didn’t express concern that a man who is guilty of a scandal that made headlines worldwide could be freed after serving less than 10% of his sentence, except to say that it’s up to the Agong," she added, referring to PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin.