State elections likely to result in status quo, says DAP man

Barring a significant swing in favour towards either Pakatan Harapan (PH) and its partner Barisan Nasional (BN) or Perikatan Nasional (PN), the results of next month's state elections are unlikely to change the status quo, former DAP MP Ong Kian Ming says. 

In an analysis of last year's general election results and possible outcomes for the state polls, Ong, who was DAP's election strategist, said the expectation among political observers was that PN would likely retain Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu, while PH-BN would retain Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan. 

Based on the results of the the Nov 19, 2022 polls, he said, it would appear that PN would win 32 of the 36 state seats in Kedah, and almost all of the seats in Kelantan and Terengganu. 

Meanwhile, PH-BN would be able to secure 32 out of the 40 seats in Penang, 42 out of the 56 seats in Selangor, and 33 out of the 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan. 

"The number of seats won by PH, BN, and PN are calculated using three scenarios of 'low', 'neutral', and 'high' vote 'transfers' between PH and BN. 

"Even under the 'low' scenario of a relatively low vote transfer rate of 30% from BN to PH, the combined electoral strength of PH and BN is sufficient to retain Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan relatively easily. 

"At the same time, even with a relatively high vote transfer rate of 70% from BN to PH, the electoral gains for PH and BN in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, will remain limited, based on the GE15 election results," he said in the analysis published by Singapore's Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute. 

At the general election last year, PN made surprise gains in a number of states, winning even constituencies traditionally seen as PH and BN strongholds including Permatang Pauh, long held by members of Anwar Ibrahim's family. 

Its component party PAS won 43 seats in total, the most of any political party at the polls. It was followed by DAP (40), PKR and Bersatu (31 each), and Umno (26). 

With no single party winning enough support to form the government on its own, PH and BN eventually joined hands with other political groups to form the present coalition government – a controversial move given their many decades of enmity. 

Top leaders from both coalitions have called for mutual support ahead of the state elections, scheduled to be held on Aug 12, although some political observers have questioned the extent to which this will succeed, and whether PN will continue its trend of support among the Malay voters. 

Ong cited data from the Election Commission which he said showed that PN had dominated the election in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu at GE15 by winning 14/15, 14/14 and 8/8 seats and 54.3%, 62.9%, and 61.8% of the votes, respectively.

"Similarly, PH was dominant in non-Malay majority Penang, winning 59.4% of votes and 10 out of 13 parliamentary seats," he said. 

"PH and BN’s combined vote share of 69.3% and 76.3% in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan respectively with PH winning 17/22 parliament seats in Selangor and PH + BN winning 8/8 parliament seats in Negeri Sembilan should also result in both states being won by PH+ BN in the upcoming state elections."

Adding that the overall results of the state elections were not likely to affect stability at the federal level, Ong nevertheless said that the performance of PH and BN remained important, both politically and economically. 

"Politically, the results will influence the thinking within Umno of the strategic advantages of working with PH in future elections. It will also affect the overall confidence of Umno leaders and grassroots members in the Umno president and deputy prime minister, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi," he said. 

"For PH, the important question of whether it can increase its share of Malay support by working with a Zahid-led Umno will be answered in these state elections. 

"From an economic perspective, a positive result for the unity government will give it more space to introduce more substantive economic reforms post-elections, including the rationalisation of various general subsidies towards more targeted programmes."