Questions over BN's future as MCA, MIC sit out state polls

After six decades of dominating Malaysia's political landscape, questions linger over the survival of Barisan Nasional (BN), as its component parties continue recuperating from their worst electoral performance ever at the 15th general election (GE15) last year.

While BN will join hands with Pakatan Harapan (PH), its partner in the federal government, for the upcoming state elections, two of its three components – MIC and MCA – have decided to sit out the action.

Only Umno, BN's lynchpin party, will be fielding candidates albeit with the assurance of support from MCA and MIC. 

Political observer Azizi Safar said that BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had failed to champion the interests of MCA and MIC in his negotiations with PH. 

"Whether this will affect BN's survival after the state elections remains to be seen," he told MalaysiaNow. 

Both MIC and MCA have denied boycotting the polls, saying they are simply giving way to Umno candidates who have a "brighter chance" of winning. 

MIC deputy president M Saravanan also said there was precedent for the decision, citing the 2019 by-election in Cameron Highlands where the party had given way to Umno despite traditionally holding the seat. 

But despite the declarations of support, Umno was recently at loggerheads with its two partners with Supreme Council member Lokman Adam labelling them as a burden. 

MCA for its part hit back, saying Umno could leave BN if Lokman felt that the coalition was no longer relevant. 

"We still support its principles and struggle," Neow Choo Seong, its deputy communications bureau chief, said. 

MIC information chief Thinalan Rajagopalu meanwhile said that Lokman should bring a resolution to remove the party from BN if MIC was such a burden.

Former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, who was sacked from the party early this year, had said that it was possible that the situation would be the end of BN. 

He also cited the BN constitution which allows one vote for each party. 

"If MCA, MIC and PBRS come to a decision, they could kick Umno out of BN," he said, referring to the remaining component parties.

Azizi, a former Penang BN executive secretary, said that sitting out the polls was the best move for MIC and MCA, due to the low odds of their candidates winning if fielded at the state elections scheduled for Aug 12 in Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. 

And while Umno was seen as trying to mend the fence with DAP after joining hands to form the federal government in the aftermath of GE15, Azizi said that its relationship with MCA and MIC went back much further than its cooperation with the PH component. 

Leaving BN?

But despite the internal squabbles, Anis Anwar Suhaimi, the chief researcher at O2 Research Malaysia, played down the odds of MIC and MCA leaving BN. 

Apart from their long history with Umno, he said, the two parties would have to take into consideration a number of issues regarding their future direction. 

For one, he said, they would have to observe what befalls Gerakan, the sole component party in Perikatan Nasional representing the non-Malays. 

He said they would also have to examine whether long-term ties with DAP would bring them political benefits or not. 

He said the results of the state elections would influence the reactions of MCA, MIC and PBRS to BN's leadership and the coalition's choice of strategy. 

"All of these factors will come into play in shaping BN's leadership post-elections," he said. 

"MIC and MCA should focus on their recovery instead of how many seats they will get, and show their political strength in their alliance with BN." 

Anis added that the racial composition of the election-facing states would likewise play a role, as Penang is considered the only mixed state.

This means that more Malay-majority seats will be up for grabs than non-Malay.

Given that BN will have to share seats with the other parties in the coalition government, he said, its share of the contest would be limited for the sake of boosting its chances of winning. 

He said BN would likely be given the Malay-majority seats while the non-Malay seats would go to DAP and PKR. 

"This would put Umno, as BN's main party, in a dilemma. Should it give part of its quota of seats to the other BN components, or let Umno take them all?

"In this situation, the Umno leadership has decided not to gamble with its odds of winning by giving Malay seats to its other partners in BN. 

"BN's task this time is to ensure that the Malay vote goes to the government through Umno."