In Terengganu, BN faces spectre of protest votes from grassroots

While Barisan Nasional (BN) is seeking to retake Terengganu from PAS at the state election to come, grassroots leaders and analysts say the once dominant pact may have to grapple with protest votes and even flat-out rejection on polling day. 

Grassroots leaders who spoke to MalaysiaNow spoke of a resistance due to BN's own internal issues as well as its cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) component DAP at the federal level. 

Gayah Abdullah, the Wanita Umno chief for Ladang Sahak, said any rejection by the grassroots would jeopardise BN's chances of a comeback in Terengganu following its poor performance at the past two general elections. 

She said BN might even find it difficult to retain its grip on the 10 state seats won at the 14th general election in 2018.

"The grassroots are actually very disappointed with the leadership of Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi," she said. 

"The way they see it, many of his actions have strayed from the party's goals and principles, including the ease with which Umno accepted DAP. 

"That is very difficult for the Malays here to swallow, especially the hardcore Umno supporters. They are really afraid of voting for BN and getting DAP, especially those in the villages and rural areas." 

Gayah also said that the number of loyal Umno supporters was on the decline, estimating just 40% in her branch alone ahead of the Aug 12 polls.

"This is why I say it is actually difficult for BN to win. If we win, it might be because of the candidates' strength, not the strength of the party," she said. 

BN has been chalking up heavy losses in Terengganu, losing all eight parliamentary seats in the state to PAS at the 15th general election (GE15) last year. 

At the 14th general election in 2018, BN won just 10 of the 32 state seats and two of the eight federal seats – Besut and Hulu Terengganu. 

PAS meanwhile secured a two-thirds majority, winning 22 state seats and forming the government at the state level. 

The upcoming state election will see BN joining hands with PH for the first time, with BN fielding 27 candidates and PH five. 

For the Kuala Terengganu by-election, meanwhile, which will be held alongside the state election, BN has given way to PH component PKR, which is fielding Azan Ismail.

'Some opposition'

Terengganu BN, for its part, acknowledged some opposition among the grassroots but said it was nothing to worry about. 

Nik Dir Wan Ku, BN's deputy chairman in the state, said the opposition was only within a small group loyal to former Umno leaders whom he said had "betrayed" the party, such as Hamzah Zainudin, Noh Omar, Khairy Jamaluddin and Annuar Musa. 

"In the context of Terengganu, there is none," he said. "Even if there is, it is only among a few who are loyal to these leaders."

Nik Dir, BN's candidate for the state seat of Pengkalan Berangan, said he was continuously explaining matters to the grassroots. 

To Terengganu Umno, he said, Zahid was a "hero" for saving the party from dissolution. 

"Zahid is a hero to us because he saved Umno," he said. "I always explain this to the grassroots, that it was Zahid who managed to restore public confidence, and he was the one who took charge when Umno was powerless." 

When asked about BN's target for the upcoming polls, he expressed confidence in the coalition winning 19 seats and forming the next state government. 

'BN vs PN'

Political analyst Yusri Ibrahim however said that his observations on the ground had confirmed a rejection of BN at the grassroots level. 

Yusri, of Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, said a "large and significant" group had already stated their willingness to support PN due to issues such as Umno's internal crises and the failure of top leaders to justify Umno's cooperation with PH. 

"This has yet to be fully resolved by the leadership, leaving some members dissatisfied and hanging in limbo," he said. 

"They have begun expressing a desire to jump ship to PN at the state polls."

Yusri said the "fragility" of BN's support was rooted in the voting pattern seen at GE15. 

And among the three main coalitions of BN, PH and PN, he added, BN's support was the least stable.

"In the context of Terengganu, PN will be the one to benefit from this uncertainty," he said.