Malay vote remains elusive for PH-BN, but Selangor still hard to get for PN unless...

A think tank says the Malay vote appears to be still out of reach for the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) coalition ahead of tomorrow's state elections, but this does not mean it will be easy for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to form the next government in the prized state of Selangor.

Ilham Centre said the opposition coalition, which is currently mounting the biggest challenge to PH since it came to power in 2008, will need the support of at least 70% of the Malay electorate to achieve its goal in Selangor.

Citing the results of a recent study, Ilham Centre said the momentum of the "Malay-Muslim wave" seen at the 15th general election (GE15) last year had continued, where PN won 52% of the Malay vote, followed by BN with 32% and PH with 15%.

"With minimum change expected in the post-GE15 situation and Umno's internal politics still raging, coupled with the moderate acceptance of the unity government among the Malays, PN is expected to continue dominating the votes of this group," it said.

It said that while the straight fight brought about by the cooperation between PH and Umno will dent the split in the Malay vote compared to what happened at GE15, this was still not enough to help the federal coalition.

And while PH might be banking on Umno to capture the Malay vote, Ilham Centre said the party's ability to attract the support of the community at tomorrow's election remained in doubt.

"Field research has found that Umno is struggling for the Malay vote due to internal party factors," it said.

In terms of the youth vote, it added, the trend of support from this group for PN seen at GE15 had continued.

"The data from this study proves that the pattern has remained and that PH faces challenges in attracting the support of this segment," it said.

"Although PMX has been aggressively holding dialogues and meeting with young people on campus, it appears that this is not enough to change a large percentage of their support towards the ruling party."

The Ilham Centre study was based on population sampling, with 2,304 respondents in the election-facing states of Selangor, Penang, Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, Kelantan, and Terengganu involved in the second phase from July 29 to Aug 8.

A total of 48 respondents participated in in-depth interviews, including youth, local leaders, and women.

Despite the gloomy forecast in terms of Malay support, Ilham Centre predicts Selangor will remain under PH, citing the state's economic performance as well as the fact that Chinese and Indian support "appears to be a permanent deposit". 

"Non-Malay support does not seem to have budged. PN's aggressive campaign has spooked this segment, and our data shows that the non-Malay voters will turn out in droves in Selangor."

PN, on the other hand, appeared to be still looking for a strategy to attract the support of non-Malays, it said.

"If this continues, PN will have to forget Chinese and Indian votes and instead focus on its reliance on the Malay vote," it said.

"This will narrow PN's space for capturing the state. It will need 70% or more of the Malays' support to reach the total number of votes needed to win."

One advantage for PN, it said, was that it would reap the benefits of vote transferability between PH supporters and those who previously voted for BN candidates.

"PH supporters have no problem transferring their votes to seats contested by BN. It is the opposite in seats contested by PH. Umno members or BN supporters find it awkward to support PH," it said.

Still, the think tank concludes that while PN could increase its number of seats in Malay-majority areas, it would still not be able to take over the state government.