For Umno loyalists in Kuala Kubu Baharu, the choice is between 'native Malay' and 'DAP outsider

Die-hard Umno supporters in Kuala Kubu Baharu are in a dilemma ahead of Saturday's by-election: their arch-rival Bersatu is offering a candidate from within their own, a Malay-Muslim.

This means that the Malays who are split between Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN), are now united by the Malay and Muslim identity of Bersatu's Khairul Azhari Saut, who faces DAP's Pang Sock Tao.

Pang and PH face another obstacle in convincing Malays to vote for them: Unlike Khairul Azhari, she is not a local.

In the past, it was all about party loyalty, and that was the case among Malay voters, who were split between PAS, Bersatu and Umno.

"The shared identity of Malays and Islam may encourage Umno voters to reconsider their loyalty, whether to the party leadership or to the ideology and principles they espouse," Anis Anwar Suhaimi, chief researcher at O2 Research Malaysia, told MalaysiaNow.

He said the perception of DAP as a traditional enemy of Umno has hampered all efforts by the Malay party's top leaders to retain the remnants of their support in Kuala Kubu Baharu, which could tilt the results in favour of PH, Umno's partner in Putrajaya.

Checks by MalaysiaNow revealed that hardcore Umno supporters in the constituency are increasingly turning against the party leadership and it is almost a foregone conclusion that most will vote in favour of PN.

Analyst Mazlan Ali said the shift in support had already taken place in last year's elections in the six states.

Based on his readings in Selangor at the time, Mazlan had predicted that 45% of Umno voters would switch to PN.

However, the results show that 65% of Umno voters have switched their support.

He said the dissatisfaction among Umno members that their party had entered into a collaboration with DAP would be felt again in the elections.

"This was the reason for Umno's heavy defeat in Selangor, where it won only two seats because the 'swing' of its supporters was too big," the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) academic told MalaysiaNow.

In Kuala Kubu Baharu, DAP was able to hold on to its seat with a comfortable majority of 4,119 votes despite being part of Hulu Selangor, an Umno stronghold won by PN in the 2022 general election.

Mazlan said Malay support for PH in Selangor was different from that in the east coast states.

In these states, Mazlan said, only about 7% to 10% support the coalition.

In Selangor, PH still has the most Malay support compared to other states.

Mazlan described PH's Malay supporters as "moderate Malays".

"In Kuala Kubu Baru, at least 15% of Malays are likely to support PH-DAP unless PN manages to get votes from the Indians," he said

He said Indians are increasingly dissatisfied with the state government over various issues affecting the community.

Mazlan agrees with the conclusion of various analyses that a PH victory would only be possible with a narrow majority.

"I estimate that it will be around 1,000 votes, depending on the turnout."

He said PH would depend heavily on party loyalty to win the by-election.

Still, turnout is critical, not to mention the splinter votes of the other two candidates.

Mazlan said this makes Indian voters the "kingmaker".

"Indian voters, who make up between 17% and 18%, can change the result as the votes of the Malay and Chinese communities are polarised and no ethnic group in Kuala Kubu Baharu make up more than 50%," he added.