Wresting Nenggiri not a sign of Umno's resurgence, say analysts

Barisan Nasional's (BN) victory in its decades-long stronghold, in an area where even an ATM can serve as campaign fodder, can hardly be described as a resurgence for the party after facing rejection by voters in two major elections, say two keen observers of Malay politics.

Ahmad Atory Hussain said the Nenggiri by-election must also be seen in the context of Kelantan's political culture, which is different from that in the west coast states.

"Voters here are influenced by local political issues. It should also be noted that there are no non-Malay issues in Kelantan, where almost 95% of the voters are Malays.

"Whichever party wins, the Malays still rule," Atory told MalaysiaNow.

In contrast, racial factors play a role in elections in most other states in the peninsula, he added.

On Saturday, BN's Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani won with 9,091 votes and a majority of 3,352 votes, beating Mohd Rizwadi of Perikatan Nasional (PN) who received 5,739 votes.

It is a rare victory for Umno in a Malay-majority constituency as the party has lost the support of its traditional vote bank since the 2022 general election.

It is also the first time the incumbent party has lost in a by-election since Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim formed the coalition government.

BN's victory in Nenggiri gives the federal ruling coalition another seat in the Kelantan state assembly alongside Galas and Kota Lama.

The campaign in Nenggiri, whose electorate include a large number of Orang Asli voters, saw local Umno strongman Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah urging its federal ally DAP to stay out of the elections, taking into account the strong sentiment against the Chinese-dominated party.

The victory is crucial for Umno, which has faced a wave of rejection from the Malays in recent elections, including in Sungai Bakap, Penang, where PN was able to increase its support.

Government officials have interpreted the result in Nenggiri as a sign that the Malays are gradually returning to Umno.

Atory disagrees, saying that such a shift can be confirmed from the results of elections in the west coast states.

"If this were a parliamentary election, BN might not win," he added.

Observer Azizi Safar noted that the PAS machinery in Nenggiri cannot match that of Umno.

It was only in 2018 that the Islamist party, which has ruled Kelantan for more than three decades, contested Nenggiri for the first time. Previously, it had given way to PKR, its ally against Umno at the time, to win the seat.

Since 2004, a voter turnout of over 80% ensured that Umno won Nenggiri in every election.

But the slump in voter turnout to just 61% in last year's state elections benefited PN as Umno supporters largely stayed away in protest against the party's federal partnership with DAP.

Azizi said PN's overall vote total had not changed significantly from last year.

"But this time, it lost heavily because there were those who did not turn out to vote in the last election," said the former Penang BN executive secretary.

There had been a tug-of-war between Bersatu and PAS in the run-up to nomination day.

A compromise was reached after Rizwadi of PAS joined Bersatu but contested under the PAS logo.

Atory described such manoeuvres as not beneficial for component party members.

"The candidate factor must take centre stage and the parties cannot do the same as they did in Kuala Kubu Baharu or in Sungai Bakap.

"Bersatu must also be big-hearted and not greedy. Otherwise, PN should not expect to become an alternative to PH," he said.

Azizi, meanwhile, reminded PN that national issues would have no impact on voters if local problems remained unresolved.

"In an area where there was not even an ATM for decades, development promises are still effective in the election campaign," he said, referring to the installation of the first ATM in the area as part of BN's campaign.

"Parties that have a lot of resources for campaigning have a greater chance of winning such a by-election," he added.