After collapse of Abraham Accords, US sets sights on Malaysia, Indonesia to normalise ties with Israel

The return of Donald Trump to the White House may see Washington reactivating its grand plan to get Muslim governments friendly to the US to establish ties with Israel, even though the first round of the Abraham Accords which the incoming president promoted during his first term collapsed following the Zionist state's genocidal war in Gaza that has killed more than 50,000 people since October last year.

Pro-Palestinian groups and diplomatic sources who spoke to MalaysiaNow said Malaysia and Indonesia were already on the radar of the Abraham Accords at the tail-end of the first Trump presidency in 2020 as well as before the October 7 attacks last year.

However, they say a series of quiet diplomatic efforts by US with top Malaysian political leaders bore no fruit at that time.

The Abraham Accords are US-sponsored bilateral agreements on the normalisation of relations between Arab states and Israel.

The project has so far established diplomatic relations and Israeli embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan and Bahrain, the latter of which has recalled its ambassador in protest at Israel's war on Gaza.

Ultimately, the plan was to get major Arab states to normalise their relations with Israel, particularly Saudi Arabia, home to Islam's two holiest sites, which Washington hoped would spur other neighbouring states as well as Muslim governments around the world to follow suit.

The plan failed after Hamas's October 7 attacks across the borders of Gaza, followed by a US-backed military campaign in Gaza that has devastated Palestinian lives and killed more than 50,000 civilians, mostly women and children.

Prior to the attacks, Riyadh, which hosts US military bases, had warmed to the US initiatives but was forced to break off all informal negotiations with Israel in the face of global Muslim anger over the genocide in Gaza.

This time, according to one diplomat familiar with the US plan who spoke to MalaysiaNow, Muslim countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia are increasingly being approached by Washington.

"The current Malaysian and Indonesian leadership is seen as the most US-friendly in recent decades, and this provides an opportunity not only to reassert Washington's influence but also for it to the bidding for Israel," the diplomat representing a Gulf state, told MalaysiaNow.

"With the right approach and a little leverage on trade, the hope is that Israel will finally get the diplomatic breakthrough it has so long craved in this part of the world"

The so-called "leverage" could well be a twisting of arms, one analyst warned.

"There is a possibility that Trump will make the normalisation of relations with Israel one of the conditions for US investment in Malaysia," said Asyraf Farique of the think tank IRIS Institute.

"Although Malaysia is a small country in the eyes of the US, it has influence among Muslim countries," he said.

This comes as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faces renewed protest from pro-Palestinian activists and the opposition over his stand on Israel's right to exist and defend itself, during a recent interview.

In the interview with CNN anchor Richard Quest, Anwar criticised the Western media for spreading a one-sided narrative that ignored the occupation of Palestinian territories, before Quest interrupted him with two propositions.

Quest: But you would accept a) Israel's right to exist.
Anwar: Yes, yes.
Quest: And b) Israel's right to defend itself.
Anwar: Yes.

Anwar has since accused critics of distorting his words, but so far has neither retracted his statements nor denied that he accepted the two propositions.

The controversy was reminiscent of another statement he made more than a decade ago, when he told the Asian Wall Street Journal in 2012 that he would "support all efforts to protect the security of the state of Israel".

Geopolitical analyst Samirul Ariff Othman said Malaysia was one of four non-Arab Muslim countries, along with Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia, with which Israel is eager to build relations..

He said that among the four, the US could find Malaysia to be the toughest when it comes to reaching a deal-breaker in establishing relations with Israel.

He said while it was unlikely that the Trump administration would put pressure on Malaysia, Washington could expect some changes, including signs of less hostility towards the Jewish state.

"Anwar, for example, called for Israel's expulsion from the United Nations," Samirul, an adjunct professor at Universiti Teknologi Petronas, told MalaysiaNow, adding that the proposal would be vetoed and have no impact.

How much pressure the Trump administration will exert on countries like Malaysia remains to be seen.

Such pressure has already been applied under the Biden administration, when it dispatched two Treasury officials in May to warn Malaysia to halt all trade and transactions with "terrorist" entities as defined by Washington - a move seen as the strongest indication of the US twisting the arms of its allies.

Undersecretary for Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury general-counsel Neil MacBride held talks with government officials, in which Malaysia reportedly "took note" of the US' concerns.

The US was concerned about money flows to Hamas and Iran in which Malaysia was allegedly involved through trade activities violating Washington's unilateral sanction rules.

Anwar had then tried to quickly allay US fears by saying that his relations with Hamas were limited to its political wing.

"I have no involvement, no discussion with the military appratus, that's very clear," Anwar said during a session with Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum in May.

"They (the US) of course have every right to demand or request for explanation. We do it to a friend who is curious to know what's happening," he said.

MalaysiaNow had previously reported, citing diplomatic sources, that the US visit was meant to send a strong message to warn leaders to toe the line.

Since the October 7 attacks, Anwar has taken pains to change a perception that he was friendlier with Israel, by criticising Washington's support for Israel, in addition to his attendance at meetings with global Muslim leaders.

However, critics have accused him of duplicity, pointing to a series of decisions that are not in line with pro-Palestine speeches abroad.

These include his decision to involve a company owned by BlackRock - the US investment giant that invests heavily in the US arms industry that supplies Israel's military needs - in a consortium to manage airports in Malaysia.

Anwar has also defended the participation of US arms companies with close ties to Israel in a defence exhibition organised by the Malaysian government in May.

Some in Israel have described Anwar as more "open" and "friendly" towards the Zionist state than previous Malaysian prime ministers, most notably Dr Mahathir Mohamad, whom Israeli politicians have labelled an "anti-Semite".

"Despite his mixed record, (Anwar) Ibrahim is certainly more open to Israel than the hard-line Mahathir, which could potentially provide an opening for Israel to improve relations to some degree," said a commentary in the Israeli daily Haaretz, just days after Anwar was sworn in in December 2022.