Don't underestimate PN, say analysts ahead of first test of support for BN-PH coalition in Perak

Ayer Kuning in Perak is known as a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold, but analysts expect a fierce contest in the by-election for the state seat given the increase in support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) seen at the last general election (GE15).

A pollster said PN's performance in the constituency at GE15 had been encouraging.

Hisommudin Bakar of the think tank Ilham Centre, said candidates contesting under the PAS banner had only obtained about 2,000 votes. However, when they ran on a PN ticket in 2022, the number of votes jumped to 6,812.

In Ayer Kuning, he said, Pakatan Harapan (PH) would likely give way to BN to allow a straight fight with PN.

He said this would give BN the edge as it could rake in additional votes from PH supporters, especially the non-Malays.  

"It could end up as a replay of BN's victory at the Mahkota by-election in Johor last year," he said.

Nevertheless, he said that PN "could not be taken lightly".

The state seat of Ayer Kuning fell vacant with the death of its incumbent assemblyman, Ishsam Shahruddin.

Ishsam, the Tapah Umno chief, won the seat at GE15 with a majority of 2,213 votes.

The Ayer Kuning seat has been held by BN since it was first contested.

Analyst Anis Anwar Suhaimi said PN had a good chance of winning more votes in Ayer Kuning based on a breakdown of voter percentage according to ethnicity.

He said Malay voters formed the majority (55%), followed by the Chinese (22%) and Indians (14%).

"In terms of ethnicity-related numbers, PN's odds are good," he said.

He said BN had a huge advantage as the support expected from PH's vote bank would help the coalition maintain its hold on the seat.

But Anis, of O2 Research Malaysia, also said that support for the coalition government in Perak had never been tested as it was during the 2023 state elections in Selangor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah and Penang.

"PN can only bank on a comfortable win if it gets the support of more than 80% of the Malay voters in Ayer Kuning," he said.

"This will be a tough act given that the Umno president is from Perak, and the Perak menteri besar is from Umno."

Anis said PN was expected to base its campaign on economic issues, the cost of living, and the narrative of Malay politics.  

However, he said the opposition pact would need a stronger narrative to win over BN supporters.

He suggested issues related to the DAP leadership which would have an impact on the Malays, such as the Urban Renewal Act which critics had said would force the poor Malays out of city centres.  

"PN can also target voters who are sympathetic towards Najib Razak, as a symbol of protest against the government's perceived failure to ensure justice for their former president," he said.